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China has deployed its coast guard through the waters of the Diaoyu islands and military drones near outlying Japan's territory as Beijing ramps up strains following the Japanese prime minister’s comments regarding Taiwan.

Rights Enforcement Activities

On Sunday, the Chinese coast guard announced that its vessels conducted a “rights enforcement patrol” through the territorial seas of the Senkaku, which are under the control of Tokyo but also claimed by China.

“Chinese maritime patrol unit 1307 conducted patrols within the territorial waters of the Senkaku islands. This was a lawful patrol operation conducted by the China coast guard to protect its sovereign claims,” officials declared.

Bilateral Tensions

Beijing and Tokyo have repeatedly faced off around the islands but the recent developments occur during an intensifying diplomatic spat after the Japanese prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, addressed lawmakers that if China attack democratically ruled Taiwan it could trigger a armed reaction from Japan.

That provoked a furious reaction from Beijing, which has indicated it demands a retraction from the Japanese official.

Taiwan's Position

Beijing asserts Taiwan as its own territory and plans to incorporate it under what it describes as “reunification”. It has left open the military option. The island's administration and people categorically refuse the prospect of Chinese rule – choosing to preserve the status quo without formally announcing independence, but pledging to protect their sovereignty if required.

An attack or invasion by China would risk escalating into a regional or global conflict, possibly drawing in the United States and other allies including Tokyo, which has territory just 68 miles from the island.

Military Activity

On the island, the military authorities reported this weekend that it had observed three dozen PLA planes, seven navy ships and one government vessel, which was likely the maritime patrol, operating around the territory over the previous day.

Maps provided by the ministry showed up to three drones flying between Taiwan and the Japan's territory off its northeastern shoreline, seeming to travel unusually near to Yonaguni. Chinese military transits there are occasional, but uncommon, and Chinese military activity in the island's ADIZ generally has been low in recent weeks.

Late on Saturday, the defense officials said Beijing had been conducting another “combined military exercise” to “harass the airspace and sea around us”. It added Taiwan had dispatched military assets to monitor the situation. The island reports such Chinese patrols a few times monthly as part of what Taipei says is an continuous strategic pressure.

Diplomatic Pressure

Tokyo has been facing mounting pressure from Beijing since Takaichi made her comments, with Beijing's diplomatic representative in the Japanese city triggering an official complaint from Tokyo by commenting that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

Beijing then summoned the Japanese ambassador for the first time in more than two years, and China’s defence ministry declared that any Tokyo's involvement would be doomed to fail.

Warning for Citizens

On Friday, China advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, leading Japan to request China to take “appropriate measures”, though it did not elaborate.

Multiple carriers from China announced this weekend that tickets to Japan could be cancelled without penalty.

In another escalation, China’s government on the weekend urged its citizens to “carefully reconsider” studying in Japan, citing what it described as an unstable security environment.

Although not an outright prohibition, a significant decrease in the population of learners from China could have a detrimental effect on academic institutions in Japan. A historic high of over 336,000 international students were enrolled in Japanese schools last year, according to official data. They featured over 123,000 learners from China – by far the single biggest group.

Official Commentary

Earlier this weekend, a Chinese state media editorial accused Takaichi of staging a political stunt that was “both reckless and fundamentally flawed”.

“A conflict between Japan and China would not be a small-scale encounter; it would likely draw in other powers, including the United States, and could rapidly escalate to a large-scale conflict with severe repercussions.”

Policy Standpoints

The government of Taiwan says the island's residents alone determine their destiny. Japanese leaders have traditionally refrained from discussing the island openly when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “deliberate vagueness” also preferred by Tokyo’s main security ally, the US.

Nevertheless, China’s ruling Communist party says the incorporation of the island with the People’s Republic of China is “inevitable”, and portrays dissent as provocative. As it moves towards being capable of military annexation, China has also been increasing its political operations and its statements towards Taiwan.